FUTUROLOGY - AN INDUSTRY DISTRACTION?
I have recently become very frustrated by the attention being given by the travel media and some companies and organizations to a proposal that we should try to create a long term sustainability vision for the year 2023 as a way in which the outbound market should move forward in its response to climate change and wider sustainable or responsible tourism action. In my view the real question is “will this initiative lead to any output or influence in what actually happens”.
I have discussed this with some trusted fellow professionals, who have worked on programmes of sustainable development for many years; most share my puzzlement as to why some in the industry have been seduced into supporting this initiative. We have a huge scepticism about such a long term approach because it has the potential to lead to us taking our eye off the ball and creating a hiatus in current action. The prevailing view amongst those of us at the “coal face” is that spending any time trying to look so far ahead is self indulgent, wasteful of resources and fails to take account of the real nature of the change of pace and need for urgent action now.
Futurology is defined as “the systematic forecasting of the future based upon present trends”. This sounds an ideal way of preparing for the future but simply ignores the reality of life as it is now and the real nature of change. Whilst futurology may be a useful discipline in academia as a way of getting students to think ahead, it is questionable if it has any actual application of value for the outbound tourism industry. Our preferred direction is through a process we call adaptation. This we define as the adjustment to actual or expected effects which harm beneficial opportunities. Adaptation is a pragmatic and practical way for any mature industry to respond to change. It is responsive to ongoing changing facts and pressures and it is continuous. It is not even as if we do not know what the issues are and how to tackle them. The responsible tourism agenda is already “on record” and has many excellent and active proponents.
Our view is supported by a recent DEFRA report, Adapting to Climate Change in England, which concludes that “The level of uncertainty has never been greater than it is now. No one can predict what will happen – it will unfold over time”. That is why I feel that the right direction for the sustainable development of the industry at the moment is to “work in the present” – building adaptation into our decision making now. DEFRA have also concluded that action must be taken in an “appropriate time scale” – they suggest a five year rolling programme which seems reasonable for England, because it is relatively stable, but is probably still too long for most parts of the World.
I share the DEFRA view that adaptive action is most likely to be taken by businesses because it is in their interests to do so – and I believe that that this interest is best served as an ongoing process rather than one built on scenarios of a future 15 years away which will probably not come to pass because of their high degree of uncertainty. Just think of some of the changes in the past 15 years. The growth of the internet; low cost airlines, new types of holidays in new destinations, company buy outs etc.etc. The next 15 years will bring other fundamental changes which will make any proposals predicated on its existing form totally redundant.
Responsible tourism action, sustainable development and climate change are all currently interlinked within the industry, primarily within the destinations that people visit. I would suggest that in the dynamic and ever changing world of tour operating even five years is too long a planning period for other than major capital or long term investment decisions. One of the main reasons for this is our need to understand and work with the local stakeholders in destinations, many of them who are disadvantaged either economically or in their access to information. In many cases their problems are immediate and their future is tomorrow – not 15 years away! What we really need is an outbound industry developing new responsible tourism partnerships with destinations through a process of “adaptive modelling” reviewed on an annual basis.
I appeal to all of those in the industry who have active responsible tourism programmes and are taking action on climate change not to redirect any of their resources or time into the creation of a 2023 scenario which will lead to a distraction from “working in the present”. A far better option is to embrace ongoing adaptation as their preferred option for responding to the changing pressures from climate change and sustainable development in destinations.
It has been put to me that we should have both an adaptive process and a 2023 vision but I do not accept that this has any merit. To my knowledge there have been at least 50 international reports setting out a “future” for sustainable tourism already. The responsible tourism agenda has in fact developed over a long period of time and many tour operators and professionals engaged in its development have great competence and knowledge and have developed processes and solutions that work effectively. In the past few years a number of new companies have engaged in the agenda, including large tour operations and industry leaders. Whilst many of these are learning the ropes and may be wooed by the rhetoric of futurology it is essential that the current pace of action does not diminish.
The time that travel and tourism companies have to engage in responsible tourism and the funds they are able to commit is very limited. I see time and money spent on 2023 as a choice that restricts time or money spent elsewhere. Our customers, who after all are the ones who contribute their funds through the holidays they buy and the donations they make, expect us to use their funds wisely to deliver projects and programmes which have an outcome. They will not thank us if we use the money they pay us to be self indulgent just to demonstrate that we have “vision”. My primary concern is that it will be a huge setback and shame if futurology diverts any of the scarce resources available away from action or the immediate desperate needs of many tourism destinations.
For those who do not share my view and support the 2023 work I make the simple appeal to really understand what you are supporting and why – and what additional benefits it will bring to you and your customers. If you have doubts remember what Winston Churchill once said “It is a mistake to look too far ahead. Only one link in the chain of destiny can be handled at a time”.
Dick Sisman
TICOS Founder
1st August 2008